Index
Markets
In February, financial markets experienced a period of high volatility, with significant fluctuations in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. In Europe, despite the turbulence, indices closed the month on an upward trend, showing remarkable resilience. In contrast, US markets posted smaller gains. In Asia, only the Nikkei showed a positive performance, while most other markets in the region remained largely unchanged or declined slightly.
In Europe, several indices have already accumulated significant returns since the beginning of the year: SMI (+12.1%), Eurostoxx 50 (+11.6%), FTSE 100 (+7.8%), DAX (+13.3%), CAC 40 (+9.9%), and FTSE MIB (+13.1%) all posted gains, consolidating the current trend.
In the United States, the Dow Jones advanced (+3%), while the S&P 500 (+1.2%) and the Nasdaq 100 (-0.6%) showed more restrained growth, weighed down by the weakness of some big tech companies.
In Asia, the Nikkei fell slightly (-0.8%), while Hong Kong's Hang Seng remained stable (+0.8%).
In February, bond markets continued their movement from the end of January, with yields falling following central bank decisions. In Europe, the ten-year Bund fell from 2.55% to 2.40%, while in the US, the ten-year Treasury fell from 4.54% to 4.20%, reflecting a weaker macroeconomic picture. Inflationary pressures continued to ease gradually, reinforcing expectations of rate cuts in the coming months, although the Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance, awaiting further confirmation of slowing growth.
In February, gold reached a new all-time high at USD 2,950 per ounce, before closing the month at USD 2,857, buoyed by demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty and global economic growth fears.
The cryptocurrency market also experienced high volatility, with Bitcoin undergoing a sharp correction. The main cryptocurrency closed the month at around USD 84,000, down 17.4% from January. The sell-off was accentuated by record outflows in spot ETFs for Bitcoin, with over $1 billion withdrawn in a single day (25.02.2025), marking the worst figure since their debut in January 2024. Selling pressure was exacerbated by rising trade tensions related to new tariffs announced by the US and the cyberattack on the Bybit Exchange, with estimated losses of $1.5 billion.
Economy
In February, the differences between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank became more apparent, reflecting the different economic conditions between the US and Europe.
During his congressional hearing on 12 February, Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed will carefully evaluate upcoming data before implementing any rate cuts. Although inflation is slowing, with core PCE falling to 2.6%, the central bank is maintaining a cautious approach, stressing that premature easing could jeopardize progress in controlling inflation.
In Europe, the ECB had already taken a more accommodative approach by cutting the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% at the end of January to counter the economic slowdown. Core inflation in the Eurozone is expected to fall to 2.5% from 2.7% the month before, signaling a disinflation process that is still ongoing but slower than expected. However, the economic outlook remains weak, with Eurozone GDP growth forecasts revised downwards to 0.7% for 2025.
Geopolitics
On 28 February 2025, President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met at the White House to discuss the conflict with Russia, but the summit quickly escalated into a diplomatic confrontation. Trump, flanked by Vice-President JD Vance, criticized Zelensky for his insistence on requesting military support, urging him instead to accept a ceasefire without security guarantees from the US. Zelensky rejected the idea, emphasizing the threat posed by Putin and the need for a stronger Western commitment.
The meeting ended abruptly, with Trump suspending further negotiations until Ukraine declared itself "ready for peace." This confrontation provoked mixed reactions internationally: some allies expressed support for Zelensky, while others feared that Trump's approach could weaken Western unity against Russia.
In February, the conflict between Israel and Hamas remained highly volatile, with continued clashes in the Gaza Strip and difficulties in negotiations for a lasting ceasefire. Israel intensified military operations in southern Gaza, while Hamas continued to attack Israeli targets.
Conclusions
The portfolio allocation remains unchanged, with a slight overweight in equities, while the bond allocation remains neutral. Cash is maintained at a slight underweight, consistent with previous positioning. Precious metals and commodities remain slightly overweight, with gold continuing to offer protection in an environment of high uncertainty.
At the sector level, Information Technology, Financials, and Communication Services remain the main areas of interest, thanks to their growth prospects and the resilience they have demonstrated in the first months of the year.
Allocation
Liquidity
Bonds
Equity
Precious metals & Commodities
Geo-tactical allocation
Switzerland
Western Europe ex Switzerland
North America
Latin America
Asia Pacific
Top sectors
- Information Technology
- Financials
- Communication services
Market data (data as of 28.02.2025)
Event calendar
Legend
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CPI: Consumer Price Index GDP: Gross Domestic Product FOMC: Federal Open Market Commitee BOJ: Bank of Japan |
FED: Federal Reserve System EIB: European Investment Bank BOE: Bank of England SNB: Swiss National Bank |
ZEW: Zentrum für Europeische Wirtschaftsforschung (Center for European Economic Research) YoY: Year on Year MoM: Month on Month |
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