Monthly comment April 2025

Index

• Markets
• Economy
• Geopolitics
• Conclusions
• Allocation
• Market data
• Event calendar

Markets

April 2025 was a month of severe turbulence for global financial markets, triggered by President Donald Trump's April 2 announcement of a 10 percent across-the-board tariff on all imports, with duties reaching up to 145 percent on Chinese goods. China's immediate retaliation sparked a wave of global selling, wiping out over $5 trillion in market capitalization.

In the United States, by the end of the month, the S&P 500 had declined by 1.14 percent and the Nasdaq by 0.20 percent. Technology stocks—particularly the “Magnificent Seven”—were among the hardest hit. Volatility rose sharply, with the VIX exceeding the 40-point threshold on multiple occasions, indicating significant market stress. In Europe, after an initial slump, some indices showed signs of recovery: the German DAX ended the month up 0.47 percent, while the French CAC 40 fell by 3.37 percent, the Italian FTSE MIB by 2.21 percent, and the Swiss SMI by 3.74 percent.

Year-to-date index performance is as follows: S&P 500 -5.3%, Nasdaq -9.7%, Eurostoxx 50 +5.4%, DAX +13%, SMI +4.4%, Hong Kong +10.3%, MSCI World -1.2%.

Safe haven assets stood out: gold reached a record high of $3,500 per ounce, up 33 percent since the start of the year, while the dollar hit multi-year lows in the 1.15–1.16 range against the euro. In this context, the Swiss franc maintained its strength against all major currencies. Bitcoin ended the month in positive territory at around $95,000, after hitting a 2025 low near $75,000 at the beginning of April. The month marked a turning point in global markets, highlighting the vulnerability of U.S. assets and the increasing appeal of safe haven investments.

On the bond front, the tariff announcement triggered a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.5 percent on April 9—the largest three-day increase in nearly 30 years. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25–4.5 percent during its March meeting but signaled the possibility of two rate cuts in the second half of the year if economic conditions weaken. In Europe, the European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points on April 17, lowering the deposit rate to 2.25 percent in response to falling inflation and sluggish eurozone growth. The Swiss National Bank, given the strength of the franc at decade highs against the dollar, is once again considering a return to negative interest rates to counter deflationary risks. Bond markets remain fragile in the face of geopolitical shocks, as central banks adopt more accommodative monetary policies to mitigate the risk of recession.

Economy

In April, the global economy showed signs of a slowdown, driven by escalating trade tensions and heightened political uncertainty. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global growth forecast for 2025 was revised down to 2.8 percent from the 3.3 percent estimated in January. This downgrade is mainly attributed to the tightening of trade tariffs—particularly those imposed by the United States, which have reached levels unseen in a century—and to increasing policy instability.

In the U.S., GDP growth for 2025 was revised down to 1.8 percent, while inflation is expected to rise to 3 percent, driven by tariff-induced supply shocks and rising service sector costs. In China, growth was revised to 4 percent, while in the euro area an expansion of just 0.8 percent is expected. Globally, inflation is showing signs of moderation: in the OECD area, annual inflation declined to 4.5 percent in February from 4.7 percent in January, while in both the U.S. and Europe the annual figure stands at 2.4 percent.

Geopolitics

April 2025 witnessed an escalation in geopolitical tensions, with significant implications for global stability. Russia launched a new offensive in Ukraine involving Chinese mercenaries. U.S.-China relations further deteriorated, with growing pressure on Taiwan. In the Red Sea, the U.S. struck a Houthi-controlled oil terminal, prompting a retaliatory missile attack. In South Asia, a terrorist attack in Kashmir heightened tensions between India and Pakistan. Globally, cyber threats targeting critical infrastructure intensified.

Conclusions

The portfolio allocation has been updated: the equity exposure has been adjusted to neutral, with the U.S. market now underweight, and Europe and Japan upgraded to overweight. The allocation to fixed income has been increased in terms of duration compared to last month. Cash remains neutral, consistent with the previous positioning. Precious metals continue to be overweight, with gold maintaining its role as a hedge in an environment of heightened uncertainty.

In our view, market volatility is likely to remain elevated in the coming weeks, given the aforementioned geopolitical and economic tensions. Our ongoing focus on macroeconomic and geopolitical developments enables us to optimize returns while balancing risks and ensuring active and responsive portfolio management.

Allocation

Liquidity

Bonds

Equity

Precious metals & Commodities

Geo-tactical allocation

Switzerland

Western Europe ex Switzerland

North America

Latin America

Asia Pacific

Top sectors

1. Financials
2. Industrials
3. Communication services 

Market data (data as of 30.04.2025)

Event calendar

Legend