Monthly comment March 2025

Index

• Markets
• Economy
• Geopolitics
• Conclusions
• Allocation
• Market data
• Event calendar

Markets

In March, global stock markets declined, closing the first quarter in negative territory. In the United States, pressure on markets intensified following the announcement of new tariffs by the Trump administration, with major indices recording their worst quarter since December 2022. In Europe, the decline was broad-based, driven by renewed trade tensions and a fragile macroeconomic environment. In Asia, the Japanese market extended the correction that began in February, while the Hang Seng posted a modest gain of 0.8%, supported by interest in the technology sector.

Looking at the main stock markets, March saw widespread losses across major exchanges. In the United States, the three leading indices recorded one of the weakest monthly performances in recent quarters. The Dow Jones fell 4.2%, the S&P 500 lost 5.8%, and the Nasdaq 100 posted the steepest decline, dropping 7.7%.

In Europe, selling pressure affected nearly all sectors, with few exceptions. The defense sector stood out, supported by expectations of structurally higher military spending at the EU level. The SMI ended the month down 3.1%, the Eurostoxx 50 fell 3.9%, the CAC 40 declined 4.0%, the DAX 1.7%, the FTSE 100 2.6%, and the FTSE MIB 1.6%. In Asia, the Nikkei dropped 4.1%, extending the correction phase, while the Hang Seng rose 0.8%, benefiting from renewed interest in technology, particularly applications linked to artificial intelligence.

Despite a turbulent March, all major European indices closed the first quarter in positive territory. The SMI gained 8.6%, the Eurostoxx 50 rose 7.8%, the DAX 11.3%, the CAC 40 6.0%, the FTSE MIB 10.0%, and the FTSE 100 2.8%. The Hang Seng stood out with a gain of 16.2% year-to-date, making it the top-performing index among major developed markets in Q1 2025.

Bond markets reversed February’s trend, with yields rising across most European markets, while movements in the United States were more contained. The ten-year Bund yield increased from 2.41% to 2.74%, driven by expectations of higher inflation and public spending. In Switzerland, the ten-year yield rose from 0.46% to 0.58%. U.S. Treasury yields remained relatively stable, with the ten-year bond closing at 4.21%, despite volatility linked to geopolitical tensions.

In March, gold surpassed 3,100 USD per ounce, reaching an all-time high of 3,128 USD. The precious metal continues to prove a key asset in 2025, bolstered by safe-haven flows amid geopolitical instability and inflation concerns. Silver also extended its positive trend, closing at 34.09 USD per ounce.

Cryptocurrencies were not immune to the volatile environment, maintaining elevated price swings. Bitcoin closed at 82,421 USD, limiting monthly losses to 2.1%, while Ethereum declined by 18.2%, ending the month at 1,819 USD.

Economy

In March, major central banks adopted different approaches in response to the evolving macroeconomic context.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in the 4.25%–4.50% range, amid a downward revision of growth estimates and higher-than-expected inflation. The new projections indicate GDP growth of 1.7% for 2025 (down from the previous 2.1%) and PCE inflation at 2.7% (versus 2.5%). Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the importance of a cautious approach, given the ongoing uncertainties related to trade and fiscal policies.

The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its three key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%. The slowdown in inflation—falling to 2.2% in March—and deteriorating growth prospects in the euro area justified the intervention, consistent with a more accommodative policy stance.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) also lowered its reference rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 0.25%. The decision was driven by particularly low inflation (0.3% in February, the lowest level in four years) and a weakening macroeconomic environment, also affected by global trade tensions. The SNB reiterated its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market to ensure price stability.

Geopolitics

In March, the Trump administration announced a new wave of tariffs, including a 25% levy on all imported cars, with “reciprocal” measures extended to numerous trading partners. These decisions have fueled global tensions and raised concerns about potential retaliation, increasing fears of a slowdown in international trade. Furthermore, President Trump’s remarks regarding Ukrainian President Zelensky and the possible revision of the strategic agreement on rare earths have further strained relations between the United States and Ukraine, at a delicate moment in the conflict with Russia.

Meanwhile, the European Union has unveiled the “Readiness 2030” plan, aimed at strengthening the continent’s defense autonomy, with a target of mobilizing up to 800 billion euros by 2030. This initiative — which includes fiscal flexibility for member states and new financing instruments for joint military projects — responds to the growing need to enhance strategic preparedness, particularly in light of uncertainties surrounding transatlantic relations.

Conclusions

The portfolio allocation has been updated to reflect a slight underweight in equities, while the bond allocation has been reduced in terms of duration compared to the benchmark. Cash remains in an overweight position, consistent with previous positioning. Precious metals remain unchanged, continuing to be overweight, with gold offering protection in a context of high uncertainty.

In view of high market volatility, we believe daily monitoring is essential, as it allows us to promptly adapt the allocation in response to emerging dynamics. Our constant attention to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments enables us to optimize returns, balance risks, and ensure both active and reactive portfolio management.

Allocation

Liquidity

Bonds

Equity

Precious metals & Commodities

Geo-tactical allocation

Switzerland

Western Europe ex Switzerland

North America

Latin America

Asia Pacific

Top sectors

1. Financials
2. Consumer Discretionary
3. Communication services 

Market data (data as of 31.03.2025)

Event calendar

Legend