Index
Markets
June 2025 confirmed the strength of the rebound that began in May, driven in particular by US and Asian markets, which continued to recover ground despite ongoing geopolitical instability. The escalation between Israel and Iran captured international attention, fueling tensions over energy and defense, but without dampening investors' risk appetite. The S&P 500 surpassed 6,200 for the first time, setting new all-time highs and closing the month up 5.2%, while the Nasdaq gained 6.0%, once again supported by large-cap technology stocks.
In Europe, equity indices ended June lower, weighed down by uncertainty surrounding the possible reinstatement of US trade tariffs. The July 9 deadline, by which the Trump administration must decide whether to extend tariffs on European cars and components, kept pressure high on the industrial sector and dampened investor sentiment. The Eurostoxx 50 ended the month down 1.2%, the French CAC 40 lost 1.1%, and the German DAX limited its losses to 0.4%. The Swiss SMI stood out as the worst performer among major continental indices, falling 2.5%. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 ended June up 6.6%, while the Chinese CSI 300 rose 2.5%. The Hang Seng gained 3.4% during the month, bringing its year-to-date performance to over 20%.
Gold ended June virtually unchanged, posting a slight increase of 0.4% to around $3,263/oz. After strong gains in previous months, the yellow metal remains supported by geopolitical tensions and continued institutional demand.
On the currency front, the US dollar weakened broadly. The EUR/USD exchange rate rose 3.9% to 1.179, while the USD/CHF fell 3.6%, closing the month at 0.793. The Swiss franc regained ground as a safe-haven currency.
Bitcoin ended June up 2.6% at around $107,600, with lower volatility compared to previous months. Ethereum, by contrast, declined by 1.5% to close the month near $2,500.
Despite strong risk appetite, the market environment remains fragile and exposed to unpredictable external factors. In particular, uncertainty over future trade developments between the US and Europe continues to act as a potential catalyst for volatility. The July 9 deadline for the Trump administration's decision on tariffs is being closely watched. A restrictive outcome could reignite protectionist tensions, dealing a heavy blow to the European manufacturing sector.
Economy
In June, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate within the 4.25–4.50% range for the fourth consecutive meeting, reaffirming a cautious and data-dependent stance. Projections from FOMC members suggest the possibility of two rate cuts by year-end, though any action will remain dependent on incoming data regarding inflation and the labor market.
Meanwhile, President Trump publicly criticized both the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell, calling them “too slow” and pushing for more aggressive cuts of up to 1 percentage point. His remarks reignited the debate over the central bank’s independence and added fuel to market expectations of future monetary easing.
In Europe, the European Central Bank lowered rates by 25 basis points on June 5, bringing the deposit rate to 2.00%. Christine Lagarde described the current policy stance as “appropriate,” signaling a potential pause in coming months pending fresh inflation data. In the UK, the Bank of England held rates steady at 4.25% during its June 20 meeting, with a 6–3 split vote highlighting internal divisions within the committee.
Geopolitics
June 2025 was marked by escalating conflict involving Israel, Iran, and the United States. On the night of June 12–13, Israel launched a large-scale strike on strategic targets in Iran, including nuclear facilities, missile bases, and refineries. In response, Iran fired dozens of missiles and deployed drones against Israel in the following days, causing limited damage.
On June 22, the United States entered the conflict directly, striking three Iranian nuclear sites with high-penetration weapons. Only after these raids did Iran retaliate by targeting the U.S. base at Al Udeid in Qatar, though no casualties were reported. That same day, the Iranian parliament voted in favor of closing the Strait of Hormuz. While the measure was not enacted, tensions in the region soared.
On June 24, President Trump announced a partial ceasefire. The news was well received by markets, but it brought no tangible resolution to the broader geopolitical crisis.
In Ukraine, the month saw a sharp intensification of Russian military activity, particularly in the Donbass, where targeted strikes hit civilian and industrial infrastructure. At the end of June, Moscow launched its largest aerial assault since the start of the war, deploying more than 500 drones and missiles over a 48-hour period. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted the majority of the attacks, though significant damage was still reported. On the diplomatic front, a technical meeting in Istanbul reopened communication channels, but no concrete progress was achieved.
Conclusions
During the month, we maintained our portfolio allocation, with equities still in overweight. The geographical exposure remained unchanged, with an underweight position in the US and an overweight in Europe. The neutral stance on gold was confirmed, consistent with the strategy defined in previous months.
In the bond segment, we slightly increased duration, though it remains below benchmark levels given the persistent uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which could trigger renewed global inflationary pressures.
We expect volatility to remain elevated in July, driven by unresolved trade negotiations between the US and Europe and the continued instability in the Middle East. The Trump administration’s upcoming decision on tariffs, expected by July 9, along with the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, are key variables that could shape market dynamics. In this environment, we continue to favor a flexible and disciplined management approach, closely monitoring potential shifts in the global landscape.
Allocation
Liquidity
Bonds
Equity
Precious metals & Commodities
Geo-tactical allocation
Switzerland
Western Europe ex Switzerland
North America
Latin America
Asia Pacific
Top sectors
- Financials
- Industrials
- Utilities
Market data (data as of 30.06.2025)
Event calendar
Legend
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CPI: Consumer Price Index GDP: Gross Domestic Product FOMC: Federal Open Market Commitee BOJ: Bank of Japan |
FED: Federal Reserve System EIB: European Investment Bank BOE: Bank of England SNB: Swiss National Bank |
ZEW: Zentrum für Europeische Wirtschaftsforschung (Center for European Economic Research) YoY: Year on Year MoM: Month on Month |
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