September 2025 confirmed the positive momentum of global stock markets, with new record highs in the United States and broad-based gains in Asia, while progress in Europe was positive overall but uneven. In the United States, the S&P 500 rose 3.5% to nearly 6,700 points, the Dow Jones gained 1.9%, while the Nasdaq 100 outperformed with a 5.4% increase.
In Europe, the Eurostoxx 50 closed up 3.3%, the German DAX remained largely unchanged (-0.1%), and the Swiss SMI slipped 0.6%.
In Asia, the Nikkei 225 rose 5.2% to new highs, while in China the CSI 300 advanced 3.2%. Hong Kong stood out with a 7.1% gain.
Gold closed September at $3,858.96 per ounce (+11.9% for the month, +47.4% year-to-date), supported by a weaker dollar and lower interest rates, which enhanced its appeal as a safe-haven asset. The precious metal thus reached new all-time highs, marking one of the sharpest monthly rallies in recent years.
On the currency front, the dollar weakened again in September: EUR/USD rose 0.4% to 1.173 (+13.5% year-to-date), while USD/CHF fell 0.5% to 0.796 (+14.2% year-to-date), with the franc still supported by its role as a safe-haven currency.
Among cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin gained 5.1% to $114,641 (+22.3% year-to-date). Ethereum, by contrast, declined 5.8% to $4,195, while still showing a 23.8% gain year-to-date.
Despite the stock market rally, the environment remains fragile: in the United States, the prospect of a government shutdown at the end of September reignited fears of a standstill that could affect macroeconomic data releases and investor confidence. On the trade front, the US administration also signaled plans to extend tariffs to certain sensitive sectors, including pharmaceuticals and medical devices, fueling concerns in Europe and Switzerland, both key exporters in this field.
At its meeting on September 16–17, the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of 2025, bringing the target range to 4.00%–4.25%, in response to signs of a weakening labor market and persistent inflationary pressures. At the same time, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson warned that the labor market is showing signs of strain and that the central bank will need to carefully calibrate its next steps.
On the macro front, the looming risk of a US government shutdown has contributed to heightened uncertainty, potentially delaying the release of key data that inform the Fed’s policy decisions. In addition, trade tensions remain in the background: the US government has announced new tariffs — including on heavy vehicles and patented pharmaceuticals — set to take effect as early as October, increasing risks for global supply chains and for European countries with significant exposure in the healthcare sector.
On the European front, the European Central Bank kept its deposit rate at 2.00% in September, maintaining its “meeting-by-meeting” approach. President Christine Lagarde emphasized reliance on incoming inflation and growth data, while the uptick in Eurozone inflation to 2.2% has added uncertainty about the next policy steps. Trade frictions with the United States and political risks linked to the Trump presidency also added to the challenging outlook.
In the Middle East, September was marked by diplomacy with the presentation of a US-Israel peace plan calling for a ceasefire and a transitional phase under international supervision. While Israel welcomed it as a basis for negotiation, several Arab countries expressed reservations about the absence of a clear prospect for a Palestinian state, highlighting deep unresolved divisions.
On the Ukrainian front, the war remains far from resolution. In September, Russia intensified its offensive with one of the heaviest bombardments since the beginning of the conflict, striking Kyiv and other cities with hundreds of drones and missiles and seizing further territory. The downing of Russian drones in Poland raised alarms in Warsaw and Brussels, reigniting tensions with NATO over the risk of the conflict spreading beyond Ukraine’s borders. At the same time, Kyiv continued to target energy and logistics infrastructure inside Russia, while growing concerns persist that international diplomatic efforts remain insufficient to bring about a meaningful de-escalation.
In Asia, tensions between China and Taiwan remained high. In September, Beijing reaffirmed its hard line on territorial integrity, while Taipei and its allies warned of the growing risk of destabilization in the Strait, underscoring its role as one of the world’s key geopolitical hotspots.
In September, we maintained our portfolio positioning, keeping an overweight stance in equities and a geographical preference for Europe over the United States. Our position in gold remained slightly overweight, in line with previous months. On the bond front, we held existing positions without major changes, with durations slightly below benchmark levels, which we believe offer the best balance between risk and return.
In our view, volatility is likely to remain elevated in the weeks ahead, driven by ongoing global political and economic uncertainty. In the United States, the risk of a federal shutdown and the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve fueled market fluctuations, while the Trump administration signaled new tariff measures against Europe and extended tariffs to critical sectors, including pharmaceuticals. At the same time, the conflict in Ukraine was marked by intensified Russian attacks, and the drone incident in Poland reignited tensions with NATO. In the Taiwan Strait, Beijing reaffirmed its hard line, underscoring the area as one of the world’s main geopolitical flashpoints. This combination of factors underscores the need for a flexible and disciplined approach to portfolio management, prepared to adjust asset allocation swiftly in response to rapidly evolving scenarios.
Legend
|
CPI: Consumer Price Index GDP: Gross Domestic Product FOMC: Federal Open Market Commitee BOJ: Bank of Japan |
FED: Federal Reserve System EIB: European Investment Bank BOE: Bank of England SNB: Swiss National Bank |
ZEW: Zentrum für Europeische Wirtschaftsforschung (Center for European Economic Research) YoY: Year on Year MoM: Month on Month |
Disclaimer: the content of this document is provided by i Partners SA (hereinafter iP) for information purposes only and is intended for internal use only. It does not in any way constitute an offer or recommendation to buy or sell a security or to carry out any type of transaction. Nor does it constitute any other type of advice, in particular to any recipient who is not a qualified, accredited, eligible and/or professional investor. It is to be used solely by its recipient and must not be forwarded, printed, uploaded, used or reproduced for any other reason. iP, cannot guarantee that the information contained herein is relevant, accurate or comprehensive. Accordingly, iP and its directors, officers, employees, agents and shareholders accept no responsibility for any loss or damage that may result from the use of the information contained herein. The content is intended solely for recipients who understand and bear all implicit and explicit risks involved. iP assumes no responsibility for the suitability or unsuitability of the information, opinions, securities or products mentioned herein. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.