--- title: Monthly comment October 2026 description: We send our contacts a monthly comment. image: https://i-partners.ch/hubfs/ipartners-featured.jpg --- [Skip to content](https://i-partners.ch/comment/october-2026#main-content) Close LANGUAGE – en [de](https://i-partners.ch/de/kommentar/oktober-2026) [es](https://i-partners.ch/es/comentario/octubre-2026) [it](https://i-partners.ch/it/commento/ottobre-2026) [![logo](https://i-partners.ch/hubfs/iPartners_logo.svg "logo")](https://www.i-partners.ch/) en [de](https://i-partners.ch/de/kommentar/oktober-2026) [es](https://i-partners.ch/es/comentario/octubre-2026) [it](https://i-partners.ch/it/commento/ottobre-2026) [i Partners](https://i-partners.ch/comment/author/ipartners) 03 Nov 2026 7 min read # Monthly comment October 2026 ## Index - [Markets](https://i-partners.ch/comment/october-2026#markets) - [Economy](https://i-partners.ch/comment/october-2026#economy) - [Geopolitics](https://i-partners.ch/comment/october-2026#geopolitics) - [Conclusions](https://i-partners.ch/comment/october-2026#conclusions) - [Allocation](https://i-partners.ch/comment/october-2026#allocation) - [Market data](https://i-partners.ch/comment/october-2026#market-data) - [Event calendar](https://i-partners.ch/comment/october-2026#event-calendar) ### Markets October saw a marked divergence between markets and asset classes. Against a backdrop of a renewed rise in oil prices, technology, precious metals and cryptocurrencies underperformed, whilst falling yields in the second half of the month supported fixed income. In the United States, the Dow Jones gained 1.7%, whilst the S&P 500 fell by 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 by 6.7%, bringing an end to the technology sector’s outperformance of previous months. Year-to-date, however, the Nasdaq 100 remains the best-performing of the US indices, up 12.4%. In Latin America, Mexico stood out, with the IPC index up by 8.7%. In Europe, performance was mixed. The SMI gained 7.1%, the strongest performance among the major European equity indices, bringing its year-to-date rise to 11.0%. The DAX and FTSE 100 gained 2.5% and 1.2% respectively, whilst the CAC 40 closed virtually unchanged, held back by France’s political and economic difficulties. By contrast, the Euro Stoxx 50 and FTSE MIB fell, losing 2.2% and 3.6% respectively, although the FTSE MIB remains up 10.2% year-to-date. Asian equity markets posted losses in October. The Nikkei fell by 5.2%, while remaining up 25.3% year-to-date. The Hang Seng and CSI 300 fell by 5.4% and 8.5% respectively, widening their year-to-date losses to 8.7% and 13.2%. Following September’s sharp rise, yields fell markedly. The 10-year Treasury, having exceeded 5.3% in the first week of the month, closed at 4.93%, down 36 basis points, whilst the 2-year fell to 4.59%. The movement also affected the long end of the curve, with the 30-year falling to 5.31%. The decline was more modest for the 10-year Bund, at 3.32%, and the Swiss 10-year bond, at 0.48%. The fall in yields supported bonds, with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index up 1.4% and the US Aggregate Index up 2.4%. Gold fell by 6.8%, bringing its year-to-date loss to 9.9%, whilst silver, platinum and palladium fell by between 16.4% and 19.0%. On the currency front, the euro fell by 1.5% against the dollar, whilst the Swiss franc appreciated by 1.3% against the dollar and by 2.8% against the euro, with the EUR/CHF exchange rate falling to 0.92. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by 7.4 per cent and 16.0 per cent respectively, extending their year-to-date losses to 11.0 per cent and 23.3 per cent. ### Economy Following the rate rises in September, the Fed and the ECB left rates unchanged in October. On 28 October, the Federal Reserve kept rates in the range of 3.75% to 4.00%, by a vote of 10 to 2, whilst Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted in favour of a further 25 basis point rise. Warsh pointed to persistently high inflation and a willingness to await further data before taking action, and following the meeting, the market assigned a probability of around 85% to a rate rise on 9 December. The month had begun with very weak employment figures, with just 29,000 new jobs in September and unemployment rising to 4.2%, which had dampened expectations of an immediate rate rise. Third-quarter GDP, however, came in stronger than expected, growing by 3.4% on an annualised basis against expectations of 3.2% – the fastest pace in a year – driven by consumer spending. Core PCE slowed to 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, whilst wages continue to rise at a slower rate than inflation. The outlook therefore remains challenging for the Fed, which must balance still-robust growth with a slowing labour market and inflation that is struggling to come down. On 29 October, the ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.50%, in line with expectations, citing geopolitical risks and high energy prices. In France, third-quarter GDP contracted by 0.1%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter without growth, fuelling concerns over public debt. ### Geopolitics In October, the crisis in the Middle East spread to Saudi Arabia. The Houthis struck the country with a series of attacks on Riyadh airport and energy infrastructure, leading to the evacuation of the site in Dhahran. In the United States, Hurricane Isaias forced Shell, Chevron and BP to halt much of their production in the Gulf of Mexico. To contain the fuel crisis, the G7 accelerated the release of emergency reserves totalling up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil, with diesel prices reaching all-time highs. Brent crude closed the month at around $118, up by approximately 15% and at its highest level since May, whilst WTI gained 15.2%, closing at $104. Meanwhile, oil exports from the Middle East – via the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes – rose to over 24 million barrels a day by mid-October, exceeding the pre-conflict level of 23.3 million. In Latin America, Brazil experienced a month of high volatility linked to the presidential elections. In the first round on 4 October, Flávio Bolsonaro came out on top with 47.0 per cent against Lula’s 45.2 per cent, and the following day the Ibovespa rose by 7.7 per cent, closing above 200,000 points for the first time. In the run-off on 25 October, however, Lula overturned the result with 51.8 per cent, securing his fourth term, whilst Bolsonaro called for the vote to be annulled. The markets reacted immediately, with the real falling by over 8 per cent against the dollar in the first trading session after the vote – the sharpest decline since 1999 – and a marked drop in Ibovespa futures. In Europe, France has endured weeks of severe tension, with mass protests taking place over several consecutive weekends following the clashes on 17 October, whilst Macron remains without a clear path to resolving the political crisis. ### Conclusions At the end of October, our allocation remained slightly overweight equities, with a neutral position in cash. This represents a month-end snapshot, as we adjust our exposure based on daily reviews. As was the case throughout October, our positioning may therefore change in the coming weeks depending on market developments. We maintain a slight overweight position in gold, while at sector level we favour Information Technology, Health Care and Financials. November begins with the US midterm elections on 3 November, in which all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate are up for election. Attention will then turn to US employment and inflation data ahead of the Fed’s meeting on 9 December, whilst developments in the Gulf crisis and the first moves of Lula’s new term in Brazil remain key. With oil prices above $100 and yields still volatile, the ability to adjust asset allocation in response to daily signals remains essential, and we continue to favour a flexible approach over a rigid allocation. ### Allocation #### Liquidity ![4\_Neutral\_Percentage](https://i-partners.ch/hs-fs/hubfs/CommentsInfographic/4_Neutral_Percentage.png?width=500&height=82&name=4_Neutral_Percentage.png) #### Bonds  ![2\_Percentage](https://i-partners.ch/hs-fs/hubfs/CommentsInfographic/2_Percentage.png?width=500&height=82&name=2_Percentage.png)  #### Equity ![5\_Percentage](https://i-partners.ch/hs-fs/hubfs/CommentsInfographic/5_Percentage.png?width=500&height=82&name=5_Percentage.png)  #### Precious metals & Commodities ![5\_Percentage](https://i-partners.ch/hs-fs/hubfs/CommentsInfographic/5_Percentage.png?width=500&height=82&name=5_Percentage.png)   ### Geo-tactical allocation #### Switzerland ![4\_Neutral\_Percentage](https://i-partners.ch/hs-fs/hubfs/CommentsInfographic/4_Neutral_Percentage.png?width=500&height=82&name=4_Neutral_Percentage.png) #### Western Europe ex Switzerland  ![5\_Percentage](https://i-partners.ch/hs-fs/hubfs/CommentsInfographic/5_Percentage.png?width=500&height=82&name=5_Percentage.png)  #### North America  ![4\_Neutral\_Percentage](https://i-partners.ch/hs-fs/hubfs/CommentsInfographic/4_Neutral_Percentage.png?width=500&height=82&name=4_Neutral_Percentage.png)  #### Latin America ![5\_Percentage](https://i-partners.ch/hs-fs/hubfs/CommentsInfographic/5_Percentage.png?width=500&height=82&name=5_Percentage.png) #### Asia Pacific  ![4\_Neutral\_Percentage](https://i-partners.ch/hs-fs/hubfs/CommentsInfographic/4_Neutral_Percentage.png?width=500&height=82&name=4_Neutral_Percentage.png)   #### Top sectors 1. Information technology 2. Healthcare 3. Financials   ### Market data (data as of 31.10.2026) ![Screenshot 2026-11-03 110529](https://i-partners.ch/hs-fs/hubfs/Screenshot%202026-11-03%20110529.png?width=792&height=781&name=Screenshot%202026-11-03%20110529.png)   ![Screenshot 2026-11-03 110733](https://i-partners.ch/hs-fs/hubfs/Screenshot%202026-11-03%20110733.png?width=794&height=672&name=Screenshot%202026-11-03%20110733.png)   ![Screenshot 2026-11-03 110759](https://i-partners.ch/hs-fs/hubfs/Screenshot%202026-11-03%20110759.png?width=794&height=723&name=Screenshot%202026-11-03%20110759.png)   ![Screenshot 2026-11-03 110830](https://i-partners.ch/hs-fs/hubfs/Screenshot%202026-11-03%20110830.png?width=792&height=589&name=Screenshot%202026-11-03%20110830.png) ### Event calendar ![Screenshot 2026-11-03 111049](https://i-partners.ch/hs-fs/hubfs/Screenshot%202026-11-03%20111049.png?width=795&height=347&name=Screenshot%202026-11-03%20111049.png) ![Screenshot 2026-11-03 111117](https://i-partners.ch/hs-fs/hubfs/Screenshot%202026-11-03%20111117.png?width=795&height=492&name=Screenshot%202026-11-03%20111117.png) Legend | CPI: Consumer Price Index GDP: Gross Domestic Product FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee BOJ: Bank of Japan | FED: Federal Reserve System EIB: European Investment Bank BOE: Bank of England SNB: Swiss National Bank | ZEW: Zentrum für Europeische Wirtschaftsforschung (Center for European Economic Research) YoY: Year on Year MoM: Month on Month | | --- | --- | --- |   --- **Disclaimer:** the content of this document is provided by i Partners SA (hereinafter iP) for information purposes only and is intended for internal use only. It does not in any way constitute an offer or recommendation to buy or sell a security or to carry out any type of transaction. Nor does it constitute any other type of advice, in particular to any recipient who is not a qualified, accredited, eligible and/or professional investor. It is to be used solely by its recipient and must not be forwarded, printed, uploaded, used or reproduced for any other reason. iP, cannot guarantee that the information contained herein is relevant, accurate or comprehensive. Accordingly, iP and its directors, officers, employees, agents and shareholders accept no responsibility for any loss or damage that may result from the use of the information contained herein. The content is intended solely for recipients who understand and bear all implicit and explicit risks involved. iP assumes no responsibility for the suitability or unsuitability of the information, opinions, securities or products mentioned herein. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.   All rights reserved - i Partners SA © 2026 All rights reserved. - [Risk Involved in Trading Financial Instruments](https://i-partners.ch/hubfs/SBA_Risks_Involved_in_Trading_Financial_Instruments_2023_EN.pdf) - [Privacy Policy](https://www.iubenda.com/privacy-policy/71388647) - [Cookie Policy](https://www.iubenda.com/privacy-policy/71388647/cookie-policy) - Cookie Settings ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "Organization", "address" : { "@type" : "PostalAddress", "addressCountry" : "", "addressLocality" : "6900 Lugano", "addressRegion" : "Switzerland", "postalCode" : "", "streetAddress" : "Via Pretorio 9" }, "knowsLanguage" : "en", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://26705879.fs1.hubspotusercontent-eu1.net/hubfs/26705879/iPartners_logo.svg" }, "name" : "i Partners SA", "url" : "https://i-partners.ch/comment/october-2026" } ``` ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "abstract" : "We send our contacts a monthly comment.", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "i Partners" }, "dateModified" : "November 3, 2026 1 PM", "datePublished" : "November 3, 2026 1 PM", "headline" : "Monthly comment October 2026", "image" : "https://26705879.fs1.hubspotusercontent-eu1.net/hubfs/26705879/ipartners-featured.jpg", "inLanguage" : "en", "keywords" : "[]", "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@type" : "WebPage" }, "name" : "Monthly comment October 2026", "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://26705879.fs1.hubspotusercontent-eu1.net/hubfs/26705879/iPartners_logo.svg" }, "name" : "i Partners SA" }, "text" : "Index Markets Economy Geopolitics Conclusions Allocation Market data Event calendar Markets October saw a marked divergence between markets and asset classes. Against a backdrop of a renewed rise in oil prices, technology, precious metals and cryptocurrencies underperformed, whilst falling yields in the second half of the month supported fixed income. In the United States, the Dow Jones gained 1.7%, whilst the S&P 500 fell by 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 by 6.7%, bringing an end to the technology sector’s outperformance of previous months. Year-to-date, however, the Nasdaq 100 remains the best-performing of the US indices, up 12.4%. In Latin America, Mexico stood out, with the IPC index up by 8.7%. In Europe, performance was mixed. The SMI gained 7.1%, the strongest performance among the major European equity indices, bringing its year-to-date rise to 11.0%. The DAX and FTSE 100 gained 2.5% and 1.2% respectively, whilst the CAC 40 closed virtually unchanged, held back by France’s political and economic difficulties. By contrast, the Euro Stoxx 50 and FTSE MIB fell, losing 2.2% and 3.6% respectively, although the FTSE MIB remains up 10.2% year-to-date. Asian equity markets posted losses in October. The Nikkei fell by 5.2%, while remaining up 25.3% year-to-date. The Hang Seng and CSI 300 fell by 5.4% and 8.5% respectively, widening their year-to-date losses to 8.7% and 13.2%. Following September’s sharp rise, yields fell markedly. The 10-year Treasury, having exceeded 5.3% in the first week of the month, closed at 4.93%, down 36 basis points, whilst the 2-year fell to 4.59%. The movement also affected the long end of the curve, with the 30-year falling to 5.31%. The decline was more modest for the 10-year Bund, at 3.32%, and the Swiss 10-year bond, at 0.48%. The fall in yields supported bonds, with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index up 1.4% and the US Aggregate Index up 2.4%. Gold fell by 6.8%, bringing its year-to-date loss to 9.9%, whilst silver, platinum and palladium fell by between 16.4% and 19.0%. On the currency front, the euro fell by 1.5% against the dollar, whilst the Swiss franc appreciated by 1.3% against the dollar and by 2.8% against the euro, with the EUR/CHF exchange rate falling to 0.92. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by 7.4 per cent and 16.0 per cent respectively, extending their year-to-date losses to 11.0 per cent and 23.3 per cent. Economy Following the rate rises in September, the Fed and the ECB left rates unchanged in October. On 28 October, the Federal Reserve kept rates in the range of 3.75% to 4.00%, by a vote of 10 to 2, whilst Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted in favour of a further 25 basis point rise. Warsh pointed to persistently high inflation and a willingness to await further data before taking action, and following the meeting, the market assigned a probability of around 85% to a rate rise on 9 December. The month had begun with very weak employment figures, with just 29,000 new jobs in September and unemployment rising to 4.2%, which had dampened expectations of an immediate rate rise. Third-quarter GDP, however, came in stronger than expected, growing by 3.4% on an annualised basis against expectations of 3.2% – the fastest pace in a year – driven by consumer spending. Core PCE slowed to 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, whilst wages continue to rise at a slower rate than inflation. The outlook therefore remains challenging for the Fed, which must balance still-robust growth with a slowing labour market and inflation that is struggling to come down. On 29 October, the ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.50%, in line with expectations, citing geopolitical risks and high energy prices. In France, third-quarter GDP contracted by 0.1%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter without growth, fuelling concerns over public debt. Geopolitics In October, the crisis in the Middle East spread to Saudi Arabia. The Houthis struck the country with a series of attacks on Riyadh airport and energy infrastructure, leading to the evacuation of the site in Dhahran. In the United States, Hurricane Isaias forced Shell, Chevron and BP to halt much of their production in the Gulf of Mexico. To contain the fuel crisis, the G7 accelerated the release of emergency reserves totalling up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil, with diesel prices reaching all-time highs. Brent crude closed the month at around $118, up by approximately 15% and at its highest level since May, whilst WTI gained 15.2%, closing at $104. Meanwhile, oil exports from the Middle East – via the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes – rose to over 24 million barrels a day by mid-October, exceeding the pre-conflict level of 23.3 million. In Latin America, Brazil experienced a month of high volatility linked to the presidential elections. In the first round on 4 October, Flávio Bolsonaro came out on top with 47.0 per cent against Lula’s 45.2 per cent, and the following day the Ibovespa rose by 7.7 per cent, closing above 200,000 points for the first time. In the run-off on 25 October, however, Lula overturned the result with 51.8 per cent, securing his fourth term, whilst Bolsonaro called for the vote to be annulled. The markets reacted immediately, with the real falling by over 8 per cent against the dollar in the first trading session after the vote – the sharpest decline since 1999 – and a marked drop in Ibovespa futures. In Europe, France has endured weeks of severe tension, with mass protests taking place over several consecutive weekends following the clashes on 17 October, whilst Macron remains without a clear path to resolving the political crisis. Conclusions At the end of October, our allocation remained slightly overweight equities, with a neutral position in cash. This represents a month-end snapshot, as we adjust our exposure based on daily reviews. As was the case throughout October, our positioning may therefore change in the coming weeks depending on market developments. We maintain a slight overweight position in gold, while at sector level we favour Information Technology, Health Care and Financials. November begins with the US midterm elections on 3 November, in which all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate are up for election. Attention will then turn to US employment and inflation data ahead of the Fed’s meeting on 9 December, whilst developments in the Gulf crisis and the first moves of Lula’s new term in Brazil remain key. With oil prices above $100 and yields still volatile, the ability to adjust asset allocation in response to daily signals remains essential, and we continue to favour a flexible approach over a rigid allocation. Allocation Liquidity Bonds Equity Precious metals & Commodities Geo-tactical allocation Switzerland Western Europe ex Switzerland North America Latin America Asia Pacific Top sectors Information technology Healthcare Financials Market data (data as of 31.10.2026) Event calendar Legend CPI: Consumer Price Index GDP: Gross Domestic Product FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee BOJ: Bank of Japan FED: Federal Reserve System EIB: European Investment Bank BOE: Bank of England SNB: Swiss National Bank ZEW: Zentrum für Europeische Wirtschaftsforschung (Center for European Economic Research) YoY: Year on Year MoM: Month on Month Disclaimer: the content of this document is provided by i Partners SA (hereinafter iP) for information purposes only and is intended for internal use only. It does not in any way constitute an offer or recommendation to buy or sell a security or to carry out any type of transaction. Nor does it constitute any other type of advice, in particular to any recipient who is not a qualified, accredited, eligible and/or professional investor. It is to be used solely by its recipient and must not be forwarded, printed, uploaded, used or reproduced for any other reason. iP, cannot guarantee that the information contained herein is relevant, accurate or comprehensive. Accordingly, iP and its directors, officers, employees, agents and shareholders accept no responsibility for any loss or damage that may result from the use of the information contained herein. The content is intended solely for recipients who understand and bear all implicit and explicit risks involved. iP assumes no responsibility for the suitability or unsuitability of the information, opinions, securities or products mentioned herein. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.", "url" : "https://i-partners.ch/comment/october-2026", "wordCount" : "4902" } ``` ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "i Partners", "url" : "https://i-partners.ch/comment/author/ipartners" }, "dateModified" : "2026-11-03T13:12:02.687Z", "datePublished" : "2026-11-03T13:12:02.000Z", "headline" : "Monthly comment October 2026", "image" : [ "https://i-partners.ch/hubfs/ipartners-featured.jpg" ], "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://i-partners.ch/comment/october-2026", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://i-partners.ch/hubfs/iPartners_logo.svg" }, "name" : "I Partners SA" } } ```