February 2026 ended with mixed results across the major global markets, characterized by three main themes: trade tensions linked to Trump's tariffs, geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, and weakness in the technology and crypto sectors.
In the United States, the outlook remained uncertain: the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.3%, the S&P 500 lost 0.9%, while the Dow Jones closed essentially unchanged (+0.2%). In Europe, February rewarded all the major indices: FTSE 100 +6.7%, SMI +6.3%, CAC 40 +5.6%, FTSE MIB +3.7%, DAX +3.0%, Euro Stoxx 50 +3.2%. The rotation of investors from the US to Europe was one of the dominant themes of the month. In Asia, the Nikkei gained +10.4%, while the Hang Seng lost 2.8% and the CSI 300 remained virtually unchanged.
Gold gained 7.9% to close at $5,279 per ounce, with silver up +10.1% and platinum up +7.9%. WTI oil closed at $67 (+2.8%). In the currency market, the dollar lost ground, weighed down by tariff uncertainty, with the euro closing at 1.181. The crypto sector had a difficult month: Bitcoin -10.8%, Ethereum -18.8%, with altcoins falling more sharply across the board. Cryptocurrencies tend to behave like risky assets in times of tension, although they do not show a stable correlation with other asset classes.
The start of March has been marked by escalation in the Middle East, adding volatility to an already complex environment. Markets are closely monitoring developments in Iran, the impact of the new 15% US tariffs, and the upcoming decisions of central banks.
In the United States, February brought improved macroeconomic data on the inflation front. The January 2026 CPI came in at 2.4% year-on-year, down from 2.7% in the previous two months, with core inflation easing to 2.5%, its lowest level since March 2021. The Fed held no meetings during the month — the next one is scheduled for March 18 — and the internal debate remains open: some governors favor cuts during 2026, while others maintain a more cautious stance, emphasizing that with consumption still solid, the priority remains bringing inflation sustainably back to 2%. Trump's announcement of new 15% tariffs has added uncertainty to the inflation outlook, as it could exert upward pressure on the prices of imported goods.
In Europe, at its February 5 meeting, the ECB kept rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, with the deposit rate held at 2.00%. The decision was unanimous. Inflation in the euro area fell to 1.7% in January, moving below the 2% target for the first time in the near term. The ECB acknowledged the recent appreciation of the euro without viewing it as a primary concern, attributing the move mainly to a shift in confidence around the dollar. The next meeting is scheduled for March 19.
The geopolitical landscape in February 2026 was marked by escalating tensions on multiple fronts, with developments intensifying throughout the month and culminating in a historically significant event in its final days.
In Ukraine, trilateral Russia-Ukraine-US negotiations continued with a second round in Abu Dhabi at the start of February and a further meeting in Geneva in mid-month. Zelensky described the talks as "difficult" and reiterated that the cession of the Donbas is non-negotiable, while Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure continued throughout the negotiations.
On the trade front, the US Supreme Court struck down the legal basis used by Trump to impose global tariffs. The response was immediate: Trump reintroduced the tariffs under an alternative legal framework, raising the universal rate from 10% to 15%, while the EU suspended the parliamentary ratification process for the trade agreement pending further clarification.
The defining event of the month's close was the coordinated military strike by the United States and Israel against Iran, launched on February 28. The raids targeted military installations, nuclear sites and command centers, with the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei among the consequences of the operation. Iran responded with missile attacks against Israel and US bases across the region. The Strait of Hormuz is under close watch given the risk of disruptions to oil flows. As of early March, the conflict is ongoing and the situation remains in rapid evolution.
We close February 2026 with a neutral equity component and an overweight position in gold, confirmed by the month's performance, which saw the precious metal act as the primary safe haven in a context of growing geopolitical uncertainty. Liquidity remains neutral, preserving the operational flexibility needed at this stage. At the sector level, we continue to favor financials, industrials, and materials, while geographically we maintain a slight overweight in Europe, reducing exposure to North America.
The month was characterized by frequent shifts in direction and elevated volatility, with the most significant movements concentrated in the final week. Markets are monitored daily and the portfolio is adjusted on an ongoing basis; the asset allocation presented represents a snapshot at month-end and does not necessarily reflect the positioning held at different points during the period.
A flexible and tactical approach remains appropriate for navigating an environment in which geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions, and market volatility require active and responsive portfolio management.
Legend
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CPI: Consumer Price Index GDP: Gross Domestic Product FOMC: Federal Open Market Commitee BOJ: Bank of Japan |
FED: Federal Reserve System EIB: European Investment Bank BOE: Bank of England SNB: Swiss National Bank |
ZEW: Zentrum für Europeische Wirtschaftsforschung (Center for European Economic Research) YoY: Year on Year MoM: Month on Month |
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